zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 01/07/2015 08:52 -0500
Those waiting to see if the crude crash would lead to any sizable adverse impact on the US trade deficit in November, as lower production led to higher imports if only on paper, the answer is yes, but in the opposite direction: instead of increasing or dropping just marginally from October’s $43.4 billion (to the $42 billion consensus estimate), the November trade deficit tumbled by 7.7% to $39 billion the lowest print since December 2013, as a result of a 2.2% drop in imports coupled with a 1% decline in exports. But it was shale crude once again that was the swing factor, which was massively produced as domestic producers scramble to offset declining prices with extra volume, because as the data showed, in November the US imported the smallest crude amount by notional since 1994, and the lowest cost crude since 2010.
And while this will boost GDP marginally now based on beancounter models, it means that in the coming months, as the peak shale production is exhausted and as capacity goes offline first slowly then fast, the deficit is once again set to surge as US shale production goes dark and the US is once again forced to import more crude from abroad, thus boosting the deficit, and leading to a GDP decline.
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